Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.757459e-05 0.000081 0.000096 0.000112 0.000131 0.000151 0.000175
2025-02-16 5.358680e-05 0.000072 0.000092 0.000118 0.000148 0.000182 0.000222
2025-02-23 4.400271e-05 0.000064 0.000088 0.000118 0.000155 0.000198 0.000251
2025-03-02 3.426210e-05 0.000054 0.000080 0.000114 0.000157 0.000208 0.000273
2025-03-09 2.744601e-05 0.000047 0.000074 0.000110 0.000158 0.000216 0.000291
2025-03-16 2.282103e-05 0.000043 0.000070 0.000110 0.000163 0.000228 0.000315
2025-03-23 1.950340e-05 0.000039 0.000068 0.000110 0.000168 0.000242 0.000339
2025-03-30 1.624825e-05 0.000035 0.000065 0.000109 0.000172 0.000252 0.000360
2025-04-06 1.307470e-05 0.000031 0.000061 0.000106 0.000172 0.000258 0.000375
2025-04-13 1.118191e-05 0.000029 0.000059 0.000107 0.000177 0.000270 0.000398
2025-04-20 8.566986e-06 0.000025 0.000054 0.000102 0.000174 0.000271 0.000406
2025-04-27 7.161008e-06 0.000023 0.000052 0.000102 0.000177 0.000280 0.000426
2025-05-04 5.617999e-06 0.000020 0.000049 0.000101 0.000180 0.000291 0.000449
2025-05-11 4.915020e-06 0.000020 0.000050 0.000104 0.000190 0.000312 0.000486
2025-05-18 4.026062e-06 0.000018 0.000049 0.000105 0.000196 0.000326 0.000515
2025-05-25 2.803271e-06 0.000015 0.000044 0.000101 0.000194 0.000329 0.000528
2025-06-01 1.985436e-06 0.000013 0.000041 0.000098 0.000194 0.000334 0.000544
2025-06-08 1.473802e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000097 0.000197 0.000345 0.000566
2025-06-15 1.137761e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000098 0.000202 0.000358 0.000594
2025-06-22 8.011697e-07 0.000010 0.000037 0.000097 0.000204 0.000367 0.000615
2025-06-29 4.979443e-07 0.000008 0.000034 0.000094 0.000203 0.000371 0.000630
2025-07-06 3.509617e-07 0.000008 0.000033 0.000095 0.000208 0.000384 0.000656
2025-07-13 1.673528e-07 0.000006 0.000030 0.000090 0.000203 0.000383 0.000663